Cenários prospectivos em redes de cooperação : o caso da Associação dos Produtores Rurais dos Campos de Cima da Serra - APROCCIMA

Abstract

Changes in the world’s competitive scenery have complicated the companies’ survival, where the forecast is unavoidable in the planning activities. Thus, a study of the future and the construction of prospective scenarios are directly related to the formulation of organizational strategies. The studies about scenarios do not aim at guessing the future, but to understand what is the best way to be followed, qualifying the decision making. In the case of local productive arrangements, or cooperation networks, the identification of preliminary events and the construction of prospective scenarios are the guiding principles of the competitive strategies and of the collective strategies’ coordination mechanisms. This study had the purpose of identifying the most probable future and the main events which are responsible for its bearing, as a way of subsidizing the strategic construction of an association of rural producers called Associação de Produtores Rurais dos Campos de Cima da Serra (APROCCIMA) for a timeline of five years. The used method was applied research, exploratory descriptive. About the problem approach, the research can be classified as qualitative-quantitative. The data were obtained from producers by APROCCIMA and from experts in this area. The Grumbach method was adopted in the construction of scenarios and the software PUMA® was used for modeling. The results obtained with the methodology showed that the genetic quality of the herd, the ability to work in groups and in a coordinated manner, increasing productivity with the use of technology and improving the quality of the final product are factors indicate the most likely scenario for the interstitium stipulated time.