Estratégias de comercialização de grãos : um estudo da utilização de projeções dos preços de commodities agrícolas pelo método ARIMAX e de indicadores de desempenho financeiro da propriedade rural

Abstract

Agricultural production is an essential economic activity worldwide, with Brazil being an important exporter of commodities, especially raw grains. This highly dynamic and complex market encompasses the fundamentals of agricultural commodity pricing and the specific financial conditions of rural properties, which are key factors in marketing and strategic decision-making. Therefore, this study aims to use future commodity price projections using the ARIMAX method and the financial indicators of a rural property to support the formulation of grain marketing strategies, specifically soybeans, corn, and wheat. To this end, through applied, quantitative and explanatory research, this study applied the ARIMAX method to forecast future prices of soybeans, corn and wheat based on the Chicago Stock Exchange and exchange rates, as well as using cash flow and production costs of a real property, used as a study scenario, to determine the best times to sell. The application of the ARIMAX method to the time series of Chicago Stock Exchange and dollar quotations produced relevant statistical results for the period from June 1, 2024, to May 31, 2025, estimating soybean, corn, and wheat prices for rural producers with R² ranging from 0.9092 to 0.9595 and absolute percentage errors from 4.67% to 9.66%, demonstrating its applicability for future forecasting of agricultural commodity prices. Regarding the formulation of marketing strategies, projected grain prices were correlated with the cash flow needs and production and capital costs of the studied property, defining the need for sales in the short, medium, and long term. The results highlight the difference in liquidity between soybeans, corn, and wheat to meet short-term commitments and the occurrence of positive margins for these crops in the medium term, although these margins gradually decrease when considering the high financial cost of money, represented by the 12% annual interest rate of the 2024/25 Harvest Plan. Therefore, a structured long-term financial analysis highlights the importance of planning rural property sales in advance, generating working capital in cash flow and ensuring higher individual grain and overall business profit margins. Finally, to improve the proposed model, the proposed model suggests the possibility of including new variables for price predictability and conducting periodic analyses of prices and sales plans for continuous adjustment and improvement of marketing strategies. [resumo fornecido pelo autor]