Cenários prospectivos : o caso da fruticultura dos Campos de Cima da Serra

Abstract

The world is currently experiencing the most competitive phase of its history, which is bringing a constant instability to organizational environments. New opportunities and challenges brought by global competition, new technology, and increasing consumers´ knowledge are forcing companies to review their business strategy and planning. Thus, this study has as its main objective the construction of prospective scenarios that will help fruit producers of Campos de Cima da Serra, Rio Grande do Sul, to plan properly, to reduce their investment risks and to assist them in their decision process. This research is characterized as a quali-quantitative study, with exploratory, descriptive, explanatory and conclusive objectives, and the technical research procedures refers to one case study. For the construction of the scenarios, it was used the Grumback methodology, operationalized through the use of the PUMA Software. The results show the identification of ten events, from which were construct three scenarios: the most probable, the ideal and the tendency; representing the most important constribution of this study.