Avaliação de investimentos utilizando opções reais em uma indústria de transformação

Abstract

Real options is a way of evaluating assets that considers the interaction between factors such as irreversibility, uncertainty and timing, which characterizes the nature of investments in an administrative decision of a business or as part of a project. Considering this, the traditional investment methods like Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which predicts static cash flow, might divert when compared to what was expected once the independent circumstances, that influences the economical results of the project, can change significantly during its lifetime. Therefore, the real options are capable of minimizing the effects of variability and allows managers to make decisions around their projects over its development, maximizing what is produced. This value can be seen as the flexibility of the project, which is the function of the cash flow volatility achieved by the project and presented through indicators of ascending and descending movements. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the application of the real option theory in an industrial environment, different from the original application in the financial market. Thus, it was necessary to review the literature on the topic showing the main concepts and their advantages and disadvantages of applying the method, and verifying how the theory could be more suitable for application. Afterwards, it was considered the application in a real investment project, in which it was possible to compare the proposed value of the project with traditional methods and the real options method. Shortly, it was verified that the value of the project varies over the option's maturity, and at NPV this value remains constant.