Construção de cenários prospectivos para o setor hospitalar no estado do Rio Grande do Sul

Abstract

Studies and construction of future scenarios are features that stand out in the formulation of business strategy. In the case of health, the scenario where this can be changed quickly, under government policies, regulations, technological advances, economic or social aspects, the modeling scenario becomes even more important, given the uncertainties which points. Meanwhile, hospitals are very committed, as are the reference for the population when it comes to health. This study aimed to construct scenarios for the hospital sector, for a time horizon of 10 years, given the geographical limitations of the State of Rio Grande do Sul. The method used was an applied research, exploratory and descriptive, and how to approach the research problem can be classified as qualitative and quantitative. Data were obtained from experts, from the hospital sector, and Grumbach method was adopted to model scenarios and the use of software. The objectives of this study, besides the modeling of the scenarios was to identify the variables that influence the scenarios proposed to raise the opinion of experts on these variables, apply the appropriate software instrument and hospital organizations with elements for the formulation of new strategies. These results are their own scenarios for the hospital sector in the geographical and temporal conditions stipulated.