Cenários prospectivos para o transporte rodoviário de cargas no Corede Serra

Abstract

This work addresses the structuring of future scenarios for the road transport industry cargo, covered by COREDE Serra in Rio Grande do Sul. Aims develop consistent forecasts on future events that involve business directly. This scenario building will provide the company making predictions, designing alternative futures and also organize competitive strategies that have an alignment with forecasts. The study also considers the major social changes, political, economic jointly with regulations involving the industry, which may be incorporated in the analyzes for making decisions. To achieve the proposed goals, two surveys were made, one with 7 experts in the field of transport, which is the minimum number required by Puma and other software companies with cargo carriers in several cities COREDE saw. In analyzing the data it was evident that several factors directly impact the operations of companies transport. Points positive as the appreciation of the dollar, increasing profitability in agriculture and new industries within the COREDE saw. Negatives, with the downturn in the economy Gaucho, delayed payment of freight (default), rising fuel costs and increased cost of using the software maintenance. Beyond Puma for the construction of the scenarios incorporate the techniques of forecasting statistics for the variables in the macroeconomic environment.