Modelo integrado para previsão de vendas como uma ferramenta de competitividade : um estudo de caso em uma empresa do setor têxtil

Abstract

In the business setting, the planning of the organizational activities along with the sales forecast enables the optimization of the resources involved in the company. The goal of this dissertation was to fit models of sales forecast to help the manager on the decision taking process seeking for the biggest competitiveness in the company and its competitors. For that purpose, this dissertation proposed the statistic methodology for temporal series, more specifically the Box & Jenkins methods to quantitative method of forecast and planning task specialist opinion of those responsible for the sales forecast of the company to qualitative method. Through the forecast of the both methods, we chose combined models, using as variables the volume of sales of main products produced by the department of knitting cloth manufacturing on the circular machines of the company in the last five years. The integrated models were calculated analyzing the sales influencing factors realized by the responsible for the planning of the company. Many models of sales forecast were evaluated, resulting that the integrated models to sales forecast on a short term, based on quantitative and qualitative methods, had a better accuracy in the forecasting process.