O regime de metas de inflação como instrumento de suavização da volatilidade do ciclo econômico brasileiro no período 1994-2019

Abstract

Economic cycles are characterized by oscillations in the economic activity of a country or region, marked by variations in output, employment, investment, and other economic variables. Over the last few decades, Brazil's economy has been subject to economic oscillations. The causes of these cycles can be varied, including changes in aggregate demand, external shocks, government policies, or even monetary policies that play a pro- or counter-cyclical role. The aim of this paper is to analyze the inflation targeting system and its effectiveness in mitigating the oscillations of economic cycles, using the Brazilian economic cycle from 1994 to 2019 as a basis. The Markov-switching Regime was used to verify cyclical behavior. The method used in this study was Markovian Regime Shift with Dynamic Regression (MS-DR). The hypothesis that the inflation targeting system dampens the effects of economic cycles was confirmed; the regime has provided greater price stability to the Brazilian economy, keeping inflation at more stable levels, and providing greater predictability for future inflation rates. [resumo fornecido pelo autor]