Inteligência competitiva e modelos de séries temporais para previsão de consumo : o estudo de uma empresa do setor metalúrgico

Abstract

The world has been in a continuous and rapid process of transformation which involves all the areas of knowledge. It is possible to assert that the speed of this process has a direct relationship with the fast changes in the technological area. These changes have influenced the global relationships even more; modifying the commercial trades and making companies rethink their competitive actions. In this field, knowledge takes on a new role giving more importance to the amount of data and information to the detriment of land, labor and capital. These changes and the importance given to information make companies establish new positions in order to identify signs that anticipate events. Obtaining, extracting and transforming information into useful knowledge to help in the final decision is a challenge. Thus the purpose of this study is determine a model of consumption anticipation to analyze the process of competitive intelligence in a Metallurgy Company located in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. To develop the study the themes Big Data, Data Mining, Demand Prediction and Competitive Intelligence were used aiming to answer the question: Which model to anticipate consumption for iron can be used to analyze information in the process of competitive intelligence? For the study, internal and external data were analyzed to identify the relation between the company iron consumption and the economic variables, which were used in the demand anticipation afterwards. Two models were identified, beeing one of them univariate and having no intervention through Box and Jenkins methodology. The second model had a transfer function. Both of them demonstrated good capability in describing historical series of iron consumption, however the univariate model has demonstrated better results in the capability of anticipation.