Análise da influência de choques aleatórios sobre o balanço de pagamentos na economia brasileira: um estudo com o vetor autoregressivo no período dos governos de 1995 a 2019

Abstract

This work analyzes the behavior of the balance of payments and their accounts along the 25 years, starts in the FHC government, goes through the Lula governments, Dilma, Temer and ends in Bolsonaro government. Data from the balance of payments (BP) accounts were collected and their behaviour analyzed. The current account was found to have a positive balance in only 4,5 years and negative in 20,5 years. To attract external capital and lessen the impact of those loss-making balances the interest rate has been kept high in practically every year analysed, for the capital and financial account to be positive, and to balance BP. And the same can be perceived, when the external sector presented positive values, there was greater PIB growth. The exchange rate was devalued in times of crisis, and inflation was under control, compared to the period of hyperinflation. To measure the impacts of the behavior of the selected variables on BP was used a dynamic econometric model of autoregressive vectors was used, where shocks were applied to obtain the impulse response function and the variance decomposition. The results show that the shock of BP on itself showed a greater amplitude, followed by gross domestic product (PIB), import exchange rate and financial account balance. The variable that took longer to stabilize, that is, that most impacted BP was the Selic rate, accompanied by the PIB, and the balance of the transactions current (TC) and the financial account that did not touch the equilibrium line, but they remained constant close to her. In terms of variance decomposition, the highest impact was 5.99% in relation to PIB, followed by the exchange rate and the financial account. [resumo fornecido pelo autor]