Análise de geração de energia fotovoltaica por processos de Markov

Abstract

The purpose of this pape ris to apply the probabilities of Markov Chains in a electric Generation system, in Campus Universitário da Região dos Vinhedos (CARVI), of Universidade de Caxias do Sul (UCS). Markov?s theory sugest tha the past data are expendable for future prognosis aplying the Markov metodology. The most important, is the premise of establish a probability of a solar energy generation through the years, by the data analysis of the solar system?s productivity got during the year of 2020. The collected data were Applied to the stochastic process in discret time and calculated in electronic spreadsheets. With these results, beside the establishment of a mathematic model to the predictability os solar power Generation through the Years, also was possible to get a prognosis of the quantity of solar energy that the system will procude in tem Years, and following Markov?s properties, the value is 293.488,5 kWh. With this result, was able to calculate the real economy os the system, in the currency coin, through the IPCA media, getting a economy of R$ 135.278,14. As the last result, the return os the investmest was calculated, based on its costs, that is R$ 109.740,00, and, according to Markov?s probabilities, the payback os the system is eight Years. [resumo fornecido pelo autor]