Uma análise das crises econômicas de 1929 e 2008, sob a perspectiva da Escola Austríaca de Economia

Abstract

This research conducted a comparative analysis of the 1929 and 2008 economic crises from the perspective of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), aiming to understand how the artificial expansion of credit, manipulation of interest rates, and institutional interventions contributed to the formation, worsening, and prolongation of boom-and-bust cycles. A theoretical-descriptive and comparative methodology was adopted, based on an extensive bibliographic review (Mises, Hayek, Rothbard, and contemporary authors) and analysis of historical data on monetary aggregates and credit. The results indicate that, in both episodes, expansionary monetary policies and cheap credit distorted intertemporal signals, fostering malinvestments and the expansion of unsustainable sectors (the stock-market bubble in the 1920s; the housing bubble and mortgage securitization in 2000-2007). The reversal of these policies (liquidity tightening / interest-rate increases) exposed unsustainable investments and triggered the recessionary phase; governmental responses — subsidies, bailouts, and stimulus measures — mitigated symptoms but, according to the Austrian interpretation, delayed adjustment and deepened long-term distortions. It is concluded that the ABCT provides a coherent explanation for the structural similarities between 1929 and 2008 and points to the need for monetary discipline, market-determined interest rates, and limits on interventions as essential measures to reduce the recurrence of crises. [resumo fornecido pelo autor]