Proposição de política de gestão de estoques em centro de distribuição de uma indústria de embalagens de papelão ondulado

Abstract

The supply chain integrates suppliers, manufacturing, and distribution with the objective of organizing the flow of materials, information, and financial resources. In this context, logistics ensures the movement of products from production to the final consumer, while inventory management is directly related to meeting customer demand, seeking to balance product availability with the associated costs. The company studied adopts a Make to Order (MTO) production model and, for a selected group of customers, uses inventory located at a distribution center (DC) to provide fragmented and responsive service. Inventory control is carried out using spreadsheets with manual data entry, resulting in stockouts, item obsolescence, and inadequate use of physical space. This study proposes an inventory management policy for the DC, structured based on time-series forecasting and the determination of the reorder point, safety stock, and economic order quantity. The research is characterized as an applied case study with a propositional nature, complemented by modeling and simulation. The proposed policy was evaluated through a retrospective simulation, in which the model was applied to historical data from 2024 and 2025 for a sample of ten items, and its results were compared with the observed performance. The results indicate a reduction in the total cost associated with lot sizing and highlight the trade-off between service level and inventory turnover. A three-phase implementation roadmap for the adoption of the model in the field is also presented. [resumo fornecido pelo autor]